Mortgage and Refinance Rates Dec. 1, 2025: Waiting for a Dip Below 6%

Mortgage rates remained largely stubborn on Dec. 1, 2025, as borrowers and lenders alike watch Treasury yields and central bank signals for a move that could push 30-year fixed rates below the psychologically important 6% mark. After months of volatility, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has been the primary driver of home loan pricing, keeping headline mortgage rates in a narrow band above 6% for many lenders.

Industry measures show purchase demand muted and refinance activity constrained, as homeowners compare the cost of switching into new loans with the prospects of a future rate fall. Lenders continue to price in credit risk and funding costs, while underwriting standards remain relatively tight compared with pre-pandemic norms. That combination keeps many borrowers on the sidelines, particularly those with smaller equity cushions or less-than-prime credit profiles.

Economists note that inflation cool-down signals and softer economic readings have increased the odds of policy easing later next year, but timing remains uncertain. Markets have partially priced in potential Fed accommodation in 2026 rather than immediate cuts, which means any relief for mortgage rates may arrive gradually. Short-term movements will still depend on incoming inflation data, employment figures and shifts in global demand for U.S. Treasuries.

For prospective homebuyers, the current environment favors those who can lock when their target mortgage rate appears attractive relative to their financial plans. Repeat refinancers should run the numbers: the break-even horizon for recouping closing costs varies widely depending on the size of the rate drop and the loan balance. Mortgage shoppers are advised to get personalized quotes from multiple lenders and factor in points, fees and loan features rather than focusing solely on the nominal quoted rate.

While markets wait for a decisive drop under 6%, borrowers who can tolerate some uncertainty may find occasional windows of opportunity. Still, broader relief for the average consumer hinges on macro developments — slower inflation, a clearer path from the Federal Reserve, and renewed demand for long-term Treasuries — that would pull benchmark yields lower and allow mortgage rates to follow.