VanEck: Bitcoin hashrate dip may mark a market bottom as treasuries buy the dip

VanEck’s recent analysis suggests a sustained fall in Bitcoin’s hashrate could be a signal that the market is approaching a bottom, especially as institutional buyers and corporate treasuries step in to buy the dip. The asset manager says a retrenchment in mining activity — reflected in lower hashrate and recent miner capitulation — can temporarily reduce the pace of coin sales from miners and ease short-term selling pressure.

Hashrate is a proxy for mining activity and network security. When hashrate declines, it often means some miners are shutting down rigs because operations are unprofitable at current prices and energy costs. VanEck notes that these episodes have historically coincided with periods of price consolidation and, in some cycles, provided fertile ground for demand from balance-sheet buyers and institutional allocators.

The firm highlights that corporate treasury teams, family offices and other institutional investors have been opportunistically adding to positions during recent pullbacks. These buyers can act as stabilizing forces because their purchases are typically long-dated and driven by strategic allocation decisions rather than short-term trading. That dynamic, combined with a shrinking near-term miner supply, may create conditions that support a recovery if demand remains steady or increases.

On-chain metrics and miner economics are central to VanEck’s view. Difficulty adjustments and changes in energy costs will influence how quickly miners return to the network. A sustained hashrate decline should eventually temper miner-driven selling, but VanEck cautions that a drop in hashpower is only one input — macro factors, regulatory developments, and ETF flows will continue to shape price action.

Market participants should watch a few key indicators: stabilization or rebound in hashrate, reduced exchange inflows, institutional flow data, and signs of renewed buying from corporates and funds. While a hashrate dip can indicate reduced supply-side pressure and a potential bottoming process, VanEck emphasizes that investors should combine this signal with broader on-chain and macro evidence before concluding the downturn has ended.

In short, VanEck frames the recent hashrate decline and concurrent institutional buying as constructive signs, but stops short of declaring a definitive bottom — recommending vigilance and a multi-factor approach to assessing the market’s next phase.