Pompliano: Bitcoin Investors Should Expect Big Crashes About Every 18 Months

Anthony Pompliano, co-founder of Morgan Creek Digital and a prominent cryptocurrency investor, says bitcoin holders should be prepared for severe, crash-like sell-offs on a roughly 18-month cadence. Framing those drawdowns as similar in scale and impact to global financial crises, Pompliano urged traders and long-term holders to recognize the market’s structural volatility and adopt risk-management practices accordingly.

Pompliano’s comments underscore a broader debate within crypto markets about the frequency and magnitude of downturns. Bitcoin’s price history has shown repeated episodes of rapid appreciation followed by deep corrections. For investors, that pattern can translate into opportunities for accumulation — if they have the risk tolerance and capital reserves — but it also raises questions about leverage, portfolio concentration and timing.

Analysts say several forces contribute to these periodic collapses: macroeconomic shocks, regulatory developments, liquidity squeezes, and shifts in investor sentiment. In highly speculative markets like cryptocurrencies, psychological feedback loops can amplify losses as margin calls and forced liquidations accelerate selling pressure.

Pompliano recommends that market participants prepare by diversifying across asset classes, limiting leverage, and maintaining cash buffers to capitalize on buying opportunities during downturns. He also emphasized the importance of time horizon: investors with multi-year convictions in bitcoin’s role as a store of value tend to view episodic collapses as part of an expected maturation process rather than terminal failures.

Market watchers caution, however, that framing crashes as occurring on a fixed calendar risks complacency. While historical patterns can be informative, each cycle has unique drivers and magnitudes. Active risk controls — stop-losses, position sizing, regular rebalancing — remain critical for both retail and institutional investors.

As bitcoin continues to attract capital from traditional and crypto-native investors, Pompliano’s warning is a reminder that the asset’s high volatility requires disciplined planning. Whether investors interpret these recurring crashes as buying opportunities or as signals to reduce exposure will shape portfolio outcomes and the future relationship between cryptocurrencies and mainstream finance.