OBR chair resigns after premature forecast release disrupts Autumn Budget

The chair of the United Kingdom’s Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has resigned after the independent fiscal watchdog unexpectedly published its economic and fiscal forecasts ahead of the government’s scheduled Autumn Budget on Wednesday. The early release upended official timing for the Budget, complicating the Treasury’s briefing plans and triggering immediate political and procedural fallout.

The OBR, charged with providing impartial analysis of the public finances and forecast data that underpin fiscal decisions, typically coordinates its publications to align with government announcements. Officials said the unplanned publication reduced the government’s ability to manage communications and intensified scrutiny of fiscal assumptions before ministers could set out spending and taxation priorities.

Lawmakers, Treasury officials and market observers reacted swiftly. Opposition MPs described the episode as a serious breach of protocol that undermined confidence in budgetary processes, while some governing party members called for a thorough review of the systems that allowed the premature release. Analysts warned that the incident could sow short-term uncertainty in markets sensitive to UK fiscal policy, although they stressed that long-term market implications would depend on forthcoming official responses and any corrections to the forecasts.

The resignation of the OBR chair comes amid calls for clarity on how the agency’s internal controls failed and what safeguards will be put in place to prevent a recurrence. Parliamentary committees are expected to seek briefings and documentation to understand the sequence of events and evaluate accountability. The OBR’s role as an independent arbiter means such lapses carry reputational risk for both the agency and the broader fiscal framework that relies on its impartial analysis.

In the near term, the Treasury faces the task of recalibrating its communications and ensuring the Autumn Budget proceeds with as much stability as possible. Officials must also address parliamentary concerns and outline any immediate process changes. The incident has re-ignited debate about transparency, institutional checks, and the technical safeguards needed when publishing sensitive fiscal data.

As scrutiny intensifies, attention will turn to the OBR’s next steps: appointing an interim leader, conducting an internal review of publication protocols, and working with government bodies to restore confidence in the timing and integrity of fiscal reporting.