Why I'm Selling Moderna into the Relief Rally

I’m reducing my Moderna position despite the recent bounce because the rally looks more like relief than a durable reset in fundamentals. The company’s vaccine franchise drove extraordinary revenue during the pandemic, but demand has normalized and future booster cycles remain uncertain. With those core cash flows likely to be more volatile, the stock’s current price reflects optimistic assumptions about sustained top-line growth and successful commercialization of multiple pipeline assets — assumptions I no longer want to bet on at current levels.

There are several practical reasons for my decision. First, valuation: multiples appear elevated relative to stalled revenue visibility and an evolving competitive landscape. Second, clinical and regulatory risk remains for next-generation mRNA products; positive trial readouts are binary events that could move the share price sharply in either direction. Third, macro and sector rotations have left biotech vulnerable to profit-taking when headlines disappoint or growth expectations are tempered.

From a portfolio-management standpoint, trimming here is a risk-control move. It frees capital to reallocate into names with clearer near-term catalysts or more attractive valuations, while still leaving me exposed to upside should Moderna deliver on pipeline milestones. I’m not abandoning the company — I see long-term potential in mRNA technology — but I prefer to wait for better risk-reward or a significant pullback before adding exposure again.

What would change my view? Conclusive evidence of sustainable revenue growth beyond pandemic-era products, materially better-than-expected trial outcomes, or a meaningful reset in valuation would prompt me to revisit a larger position. Conversely, any signs of deteriorating margins, weaker-than-expected revenue guidance, or intensified competitive pressure would reinforce my decision to sell more.

In short, the rally feels like a relief bounce rather than a durable recovery in fundamentals. Selling now is a disciplined response to uncertainty — preserving optionality while keeping a door open to re-enter on improved fundamentals or a more attractive price.