Jefferies Warns Bumble, Internet Stocks Could Face Capped Multiples in 2026

Jefferies is flagging caution for Bumble (BMBL) and the broader internet sector as markets look toward 2026. The firm’s analysts argue that two structural pressures — the emergence of AI “agents” that automate user interactions and rising content, moderation and infrastructure costs — could act as a ceiling on valuation multiples for online platforms.

For Bumble, Jefferies points to potential headwinds in user engagement and monetization. The rise of AI agents that can simulate or automate dating interactions may change how users spend time on apps and how much companies can extract in revenue per user. At the same time, platforms are increasingly investing in AI-driven features, content moderation systems and expanded cloud capacity — all of which raise operating expenses and weigh on margins.

Jefferies warns that even if revenue growth continues, higher structural costs and changing product economics could compress price-to-earnings and enterprise-value multiples. That implies upside for earnings might not fully translate into higher market valuations, particularly for businesses that lack diversified revenue streams or durable margin protection.

The research note suggests investors should focus on companies with clearer paths to monetization, stronger unit economics and more resilient balance sheets. Firms that can offset incremental AI and moderation spending with higher ARPU (average revenue per user), advertising pricing power or subscription growth are likely to be better positioned. Conversely, single-product social or dating apps with concentrated revenue models may face steeper re-rating risk.

Jefferies’ cautionary view does not imply uniform weakness across the internet sector; rather, it highlights a potential regime change where cost structures and AI dynamics reshape investor expectations. For portfolio managers, the takeaway is to reassess valuation cushions, stress-test margin assumptions and reassess which businesses can sustain multiple expansion in a higher-cost, AI-enabled environment.

As 2026 approaches, the market will be watching how AI agents affect user behavior and whether platforms can convert new technical investments into durable revenue gains. Jefferies’ outlook underscores that earnings growth alone may not be sufficient to support previous valuation norms if structural costs rise and business economics evolve.